[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Rebounded Sharply by Over 3% on December 19, US Unadjusted CPI Annual Rate Recorded 2.7% in November

SMM Nickel December 19 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The US unadjusted CPI annual rate for November came in at 2.7%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%; the US unadjusted core CPI annual rate for November was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021.

(2) Wu Qing attended the inaugural meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Institute and held an expert symposium on the capital market's "15th Five-Year Plan". Wu Qing stated that efforts will be made to solidly advance the formulation and implementation of the capital market's "15th Five-Year Plan", closely focusing on the main tasks of preventing risks, strengthening supervision, and promoting high-quality development, continuously deepen comprehensive reforms for investment and financing in the capital market, steadily expand institutional high-level opening up, and continuously enhance the inclusiveness and attractiveness of the capital market system.

Spot Market:

On December 19, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 116,500-123,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,100 yuan/mt, up 3,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,500-6,700 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 6,600 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) fluctuated rangebound during the night session, then experienced a strong rally in the morning session, gaining over 3,500 yuan/mt, before pulling back slightly. It closed at 116,540 yuan/mt, up 2.61%.

Due to the significant previous decline in nickel prices, coupled with recent speculation surrounding the announcement by Indonesia's APNI of plans to substantially reduce the RKAB quota for 2026, nickel prices saw a sharp rebound. In the short term, nickel prices are supported at the bottom by integrated MHP costs, limiting downside room; however, upside potential remains constrained by high inventory and weak demand fundamentals. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to trade within the range of 112,000-116,000 yuan/mt.